The governor’s race has begun
OPINION —
Over the past year, I have been on a speaking tour throughout the state – especially leading up to the General Election on Nov. 5. The reason for my visiting and speaking to civic organizations was to discuss the national presidential race and its evolvement, as well as how the race for the White House affects Alabamians.
It was one of the most unusual, interesting topsy-turvy presidential contests I can remember. It was entertaining to say the least. After my talks, I left time for questions from the audiences. You would think that the first, and most important questions would pertain to the presidential contest. However, that was not the most prevalent inquiry. In almost all 30 venues, the most asked question was who will follow Kay Ivey as governor and who is running for governor in 2026.
My answer is that it will indeed be one of the most interesting and entertaining governor’s races in decades. With Ivey unable to run for another term, there will be no incumbent. There are three obvious successors to the throne that are immediately brought to the forefront: Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth, Attorney Gen. Steve Marshall and Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate. They all three must go somewhere else, because all three are term-limited in their current posts.
Will Ainsworth is considered the prohibitive favorite by all Montgomery insiders. He has indeed been doing his homework and has been campaigning non-stop for governor for the past six years as lieutenant governor. He has locked up the Montgomery political lobbying money. This, in and of itself, probably puts him miles ahead of Marshall and Pate.
Ainsworth does not need any of the big lobbyists’ money. He has enough money on his own. His Daddy’s money is enough to fund several governor’s races. His father has already shown that he will help his boy as much as he needs. He bought him the lieutenant governor’s office and can buy him the governor’s office. However, Ainsworth’s move to garner the big Montgomery money is an astute political maneuver because it prohibits his competitors from gaining access to these donors. After all, money is the “mother’s milk of politics,” and this is Ainsworth’s calling card.
Marshall and Pate cannot compete with Ainsworth financially. Marshall has built a following among the ultra-right-wing, social conservative base, but these folks do not have any money, and the ones who do, do not give. Therefore, Pate and Marshall are relegated to being “also rans” in the brass ring race. However, they would be big dogs in the lieutenant governor’s race, which looks to be drawing quite a crowd.
My response to audiences early in the year was Ainsworth is the early favorite because of his family money, but there is a big vacuum for an unknown candidate. 2026 could be another 1978 where a Fob James-like candidate comes out of the dark and buys the governor’s office. A 60-ish businessman who built his or her own business and made their own money is more attractive than a 40-year-old boy whose daddy has a lot of money.
The most popular and successful mayor in the state, Tommy Battle, would be a major player for governor. However, being mayor of the largest and most prosperous city in the state, if not nation (Huntsville), is a better job than being governor of Alabama.
In the past month or so, a name has surfaced in the 2026 governor’s race that will turn the tide and change the landscape of the race. Coach Tommy Tuberville is rumored to be considering a run for governor in 2026. His Senate seat is also up for election in 2026. He got to the Senate at age 65, which is not the best age to arrive in the U.S. Senate and attain any power under the seniority system. He is 70 and looking at another six-year term as a 70-ish back bencher.
He has his detractors, but polling reveals he is very popular in Alabama. He has over 75% name identification with high positives, whereas Ainsworth, Marshall and Pate only have 20% name identification. Tuberville would automatically become the favorite and Ainsworth and Marshall would probably look hard at Tuberville’s Senate seat.
Coach Tuberville needs to decide and move quickly because, folks, the race has begun.
See you next week.
Steve Flowers served 16 years in the state legislature. Contact him at steve@steveflowers.us.
