OPINION —
In Lewis Carroll’s classic book “Through the Looking Glass,” the character Humpty Dumpty says, “When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.” It is said that he used a “rather scornful” way of relating his opinions. Humpty Dumpty was often depicted as an egg, and legend has it that he was meant to mock a nobleman who offended King Richard III, of England.
Sherri Reese, the Democratic candidate for District 27 in the state senate, called me recently. She is concerned that her Republican opponent, Jay Hovey, is misrepresenting her campaign stands on issues. Is he? I have studied Hovey’s online polls and made a determination (see below). Unlike Humpty Dumpty, Hovey’s poll questions may mean more or less, depending on who is polled.
One question reads: “Sherri Reese supports Medicaid expansion in Alabama, even though it will cost at least (multi-millions) more in costs to the State of Alabama, money that would have to be taken away from education, roads, and other needs the State must take care of.” Possible answers on voting for her are “Much more likely,” “Somewhat more likely,” “Makes no difference,” “Somewhat less likely,” “Much less likely” and “Unsure.” Boy, that’s a mouthful.
First, I would add “Makes no difference” and “Unsure” into another category that fits both. Voters don’t want six-answer choices and don’t like to read so much. Currently, it’s quite possible that the money would come from education, roads and more, in some balanced amounts.
Yet, what if there is an oil spill in the Gulf that gives the state a lot of money as retribution? That happened after the Deep-Water Horizon spill in 2010. Also, the state appears closer to having a degree of gambling authorized. So, Hovey’s question was accurate enough for today, but Reese should mention the qualifications above; that is, if the state suddenly gets money that wasn’t anticipated, then schools and roads may not be cut a lot with more Medicaid.
Another question reads: “Sherri Reese is against exempting Christian organizations from laws, for example, which would force conservative churches to hire homosexual pastors.” Answers on voting for her are “Much more likely,” “Somewhat more likely,” “Makes no difference,” “Somewhat less likely,” “Much less likely” and “Unsure.” Again, such combining of two answers would work wel1.
Also, the “against exempting” might confuse voters into not answering this question. The word “homosexual” is rarely seen these days, even in mainstream churches. Thus, that question might turn off Christians who have adapted to the term “gay,” which has been in general use since about the mid-1970s.
Brian Wise, a long-time national broadcaster, wrote a commentary for The Washington Times published April 20, 2017 — three months into the Trump administration. Wise said “big data” polling does not suit the Trump era, because MAGA people suspect pollsters; often their opinions are not added to a poll.
“In the 2016 presidential election cycle, Mr. Trump’s greatest source of support was non-traditional voters who turned out in droves,” Wise said. “Those same populations continue to celebrate his unorthodox actions now, even while still being under-counted in traditional polls.”
Wise, and other analysts, have decided that to understand Trump supporters, we must realize that they usually avoid polls, and they actively work to protect the actual data that polls rely on. Most Trump supporters are inclined to be skeptical of providing personal data, so they do not participate. This leads to polls media use that do not include the precise population that would show support for Trump.
Wise’s commentary concludes: “The reason Kellyanne Conway was so successful (as campaign manager) and could arguably be considered the Trump campaign’s MVP, is because she understood that even as a pollster, polling is not about collecting data sets; it is about understanding people.”
Another way a candidate can try to clarify an opponent’s polls is to create their own polls, with the questions they prefer. But that involves a lot of time and considerable money. I checked campaign finances recently and found Hovey with almost $183,000 in funds on hand. Sherri Reese had almost $4,000 available.
In the 1948 election, incumbent President Harry Truman, a Democrat, went to bed after seeing an early print of a newspaper that said Republican Thomas Dewey had won. The next day, Truman himself had won. The poll was by telephone only, and not many people then had their own phones.
The “heartland” citizens didn’t get polled but did vote to keep Truman in office. Almost 75 years after Truman’s victory, polling is a sticky issue. Many people don’t participate in surveys online or by phone. But Lewis Carroll, and Humpty Dumpty, left a warning.
“If you limit your actions in life to things that nobody can possibly find fault with, you will not do much!”
Greg Markley moved to Lee County in 1996. He has a master’s in education from AUM and a master’s in history from Auburn University. He taught politics as an adjunct in Georgia and Alabama. An award-winning writer in the Army and civilian life, he has contributed to The Observer since 2011. He writes on politics, education and books. gm.markley@charter.net.