OPINION —
The presidential race has begun, and rightly so because 2024 is just around the corner. The early primaries are less than 10 months away. We in Alabama have an early presidential primary 11 months from now on March 5, 2024.
Actually, the Republican challengers are slow getting out of the gate. The obvious elephant in the room is the looming presence of one, Donald Trump. He seems intent on running. His ego will not allow him to read the tea leaves, as well as every scientific poll, which tell him that he is yesterday’s news; over 75% of American voters detest him and he cannot defeat anyone in a presidential race. In fact, polling reveals that any Democrat or foreign dictator would beat him by landslide proportions by a much larger margin than the overwhelming defeat he received from the listless, almost lifeless Joe Biden in 2020.
The problem for Republicans is that Trump is sitting there with a hardcore 25% base of Republican voters. Therefore, if six or more substantial Republican presidential entrants get into the battle for the nomination and they average getting 12% of the GOP primary votes, then Trump could prevail with his 25% minority base — thus giving him the nomination and ultimate electoral disaster for Republicans. They would lose the presidential contest so badly that it would take down a host of Republican congressional seats. Republicans would suffer dramatically from the negative Trump coattail effect. Republicans would most certainly lose their slim margin in the House of Representatives but would also lose precious seats in the U.S. Senate.
The Republican Party strategists and insiders are keenly aware of the Trump debacle scenario and are rallying around Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Rank-and-file GOP primary voters are flocking to him in droves. If the money is there to offset the Trump machine and gutter attacks that come with it, DeSantis will probably prevail. The reluctance of other major GOP candidates to get into the fray is a sign that the conservatives in the country are working behind the scenes to orchestrate and discourage “also ran” candidates from getting into the race, which would give DeSantis a clear, undeterred victory to face Biden in November. Minor candidates like Mike Pence and Nikki Haley will run, but polling shows them with a 3% threshold. Haley is probably angling to be DeSantis’ vice-presidential choice. DeSantis will probably be the Republican nominee and face Biden in the fall of 2024.
Make no mistake about it — Biden will be the Democratic nominee. It is far too late in the nominating process for a Democratic challenger to get into the race against an incumbent president. Therefore, Biden will skate to the nomination of his party without taxing his diminished stamina. In fact, his handlers will probably keep him out of sight during the entire campaign, which is a tried-and-true, effective campaign strategy to elect ol’ Biden.
Biden’s age is his biggest albatross toward reelection. Even Democratic voters who tend to be younger are concerned by it. His demeanor and gait accentuate his diminished capacity and advanced age. Indeed, 82 is a pretty advanced age to be in the Oval Office.
However, if you watched his February State of the Union Address, his performance dispelled naysayers. His delivery, appearance and lucidity were on par with any 60-year-old president. I have seen quite a few State of the Union speeches of sitting presidents, and his performance was one of the most brilliant and well-delivered I have seen. It was shocking and amazing.
Forty million Americans were watching not to hear what he had to say, but how he said it. Most Americans were looking for a stumbling, tongue-wagging, incognizant old “Uncle Joe.”
Instead, he was on script, lucid and glib who came off script and handled heckling from right-wing, back-bench Republicans with aplomb. He deviated from the teleprompter with candid, sincere comments. He made a brilliant opening campaign appearance that will resonate with voters throughout the campaign when he is described as a doddering old fool who should be in a nursing home.
He has also been in politics long enough to know to trust his handlers and stay away from voters, and just parrot the old-line, liberal Democratic talking points that say Republicans are against Social Security, which by the way is the most demagogic liberal lie ever espoused. Republicans are not for cutting Social Security; most of their voters would starve to death.
If DeSantis is indeed the Republican nominee, it will be a close presidential race in November 2024, which is not that far away.
See you next week.
Flowers is Alabama’s leadin political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Flowers may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.