BY WIL CREWS
SPORTSCREWS@OPELIKAOBSERVER.COM
OPINION —
“Glad to have you with us, and welcome to College Gameday!”
Those words, spoken every Saturday morning during the college football season, are something every college football fan loves to hear.
When the hallowed words echo through a crowd of fervent fans on one of America’s greatest college campuses, the battle lines are drawn. The energy levels rise. The rivalries are renewed. A childlike feeling of comfort cocoons around those watching, and suddenly, even the most optimistic of outlooks feels possible again.
Locally, fans and media alike are anticipating those words, which coincide with the beginning of the 2023-24 Auburn football season. Excitement abounds around the Plains as expectations are high for coach Hugh Freeze’s first year at the helm of the Tigers. The past three seasons have been dismal for Auburn football and its supporters. Five wins and seven loses; six wins and seven loses; six wins and five loses. That’s the less-than-satisfying result of the Tigers’ previous three campaigns.
But the arrival of Freeze promises to change that. Recruiting and the general moral around the program have improved in the past months, and with this year’s depth chart shaping up, the Tigers’ prospects of success can be more accurately predicted.
Auburn plays seven home games in 2023. Five on the road. The Tigers will have three games to sharpen up before SEC play begins on the road against Texas A&M, with a week two trip to the Bear Flag State to face Cal posing an intriguing early test of the SEC’s supremacy. In addition, the Tigers are slated in week 10 to face SEC opponent Vanderbilt for the first time since 2016. Other than that, it’s a familiar cast of villains which stand in the way of Auburn reaching its goals for this season.
While the arrival of Freeze to Auburn has united the fanbase for the most part, everyone has their doubters. An overhauled Auburn roster ensures that the product on the field will look different, hopefully better, but also guarantees growing pains. Pundits would probably say an unbiased “good” season for Auburn in 2023 would amount to a rivalry win or two, and a final regular season record 7-5 or better and a bowl game win. How do the Tigers get there?
Home opponents: UMass (Sept. 2), Samford (Sept. 16), Georgia (Sept. 30), Ole Miss (Oct. 21), Miss. State (Oct. 28), New Mexico State (Nov. 18), Alabama (Nov. 25).
Away opponents: Cal (Sept. 9), Texas A&M (Sept. 23), LSU (Oct. 14), Vanderbilt (Nov. 4), Arkansas (Nov. 11).
Categorically, the schedule can be broken into three parts: Must Win; Need One; and Win Majority.
The Must Win games: UMass, Samford, Vanderbilt and New Mexico. Not much else needs to be said on the teams, as even with half a new team, Auburn’s talent greatly outweighs the aforementioned, and all but Vanderbilt will be played at home inside Jordan-Hare Stadium.
The rest of schedule is where the margin of error tightens and the range of outcomes widens. The Tigers need to win three out of the five in the category of Win Majority games. Those contest are against Cal, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Arkansas. Aside from maybe A&M, the Tigers project to have more talent on its roster than these teams. However, a week two trip across the country to play the Golden Bears is a classic upset candidate (looking at you Penn State 2021.); an SEC opener on the road against Texas A&M — the week before a rivalry game against Georgia — is a classic trap game; and given the toss-up nature of recent contest against the Mississippi teams and Arkansas, Tiger fans can have anything but peace of mind prior to those contest. Regardless, three wins out of five for this section of the schedule should pacify the supporters of the Orange and Blue.
Lastly, the Need One games. Admittedly, Tiger fans might not want to settle for just one win against LSU, Georgia and Alabama — Auburn’s most despised rivals. But with reasonable expectations, the Tigers escaping with one victory against either last year’s SEC West champions, LSU, back-to-back National Champions, Georgia, or the dynasty that is Alabama under head coach Nick Saban, has to be considered a success. Anything more would be icing on the cake.
With all that said, the following is my prediction of how the 2023 Auburn Tigers will fare.
– Home, Sept. 2 vs. UMass: Win
– Away, Sept. 9 vs. Cal: Win
– Home, Sept. 16 vs. Samford: Win
– Away, Sept. 23 vs. Texas A&M: Loss
– Home, Sept. 30 vs. Georgia: Loss
– Away, Oct. 14 vs. LSU: Loss
– Home, Oct. 21 vs. Ole Miss: Win
– Home, Oct. 28 vs. Miss State: Win
– Away, Nov. 4 vs. Vanderbilt: Win
– Away, Nov. 4 vs. Arkansas: Win
– Home, Nov. 18 vs. New Mexico State: Win
– Home, Nov.25 vs. Alabama: ???
Final Record: 8-4 or 9-3.
Everyone knows that record goes out the door for the Iron Bowl, especially when it’s played at Jordan-Hare. So, I see no point in predicting the outcome of that game months before it takes place. However, if Auburn gets hot in the stretch run of its schedule like I predict, watch out for the Tigers to play spoiler against their most bitter rival.