Election 2024 – Turnout is key
OPINION —
The decision by the Joe Biden inner circle to allow the poor fellow to get out of the Presidential race was a godsend for the Democratic Party.
It gives new life to the Democrats’ chances to keep the White House. The ascension of Vice President Kamala Harris to the top of the ticket breathes new life into a dead campaign. Biden’s demise, mentally and physically, assured a Democratic presidential defeat on Nov. 5, but also guaranteed the Democrats’ loss of the U.S. Senate, as well as their hopes to rest the majority of the House from the Republicans. The top of the ticket in a presidential year usually affects the results of down ballot congressional races.
The national electorate is divided evenly right down the middle with 45% Democratic locked in voters and a guaranteed 45% Republican voters. Therefore, the race between Democrat Harris and Republican Donald Trump is all about turnout. It’s turnout, turnout, turnout.
It does not matter how popular or what landslide numbers Trump gets in Alabama or how much Harris trounces Trump in California, it is all going to boil down to which candidate’s stalwart supporters turn out to vote in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Trump and the Republicans came out of their successful GOP Convention two weeks ago with a bump and a five-point lead. My guess is that when the Democrats end their convention in two weeks, Harris and Trump will be knotted at a dead even 45/45 in the six battleground states. The horse race numbers will remain the same for the final two months leading up to the Nov. 5 election.
It will all depend on the enthusiasm and determination of the base of each team. Does the Trump Conservative Team vote enthusiastically as expected or does the Harris Liberal Team get its disciples to the polls? It will all boil down to turnout in six states. My guess is that it comes down to Wisconsin and Michigan.
Harris is the best candidate that the Democrats could field. She perfectly reflects the heart and soul of the Democratic Party, which are African American women. She will energize this base vote. It will be close in November.
Biden was in a diminished capacity when the Democrats ran him in 2020. They were able to hide him and not let people see him during that campaign year and simply ran a campaign that was focused on voting against Trump.
However, when he became President, he had to actually be seen and watched. It was apparent that he was not vital, cognitively. Over the past two years it has gotten progressively worse. This year, he has been on dramatic decline. In recent months, there have been some very comical scenes. It would make for a reality comedy show. You will probably see a reel in future years entitled “Old Joe runs for President.”
There are three scenes that stick out to me and would be his greatest hits. The first occurred at a D-Day event in France. You could tell that the European leaders were concerned and amused at Biden’s diminished capacity and demeanor. They were lining up to take a picture with the other European leaders when, all of a sudden, ole Joe starts wandering off toward a cliff and the Italian Prime Minister had to run grab him by the arm and bring him back.
Later that month, they took Joe to a fundraiser in Hollywood with Liberal Elite, left-wing movie stars. He was on stage with Barak Obama. When the program came to an end, he stood there on the stage with Obama in one of his memorable stares into space. He stood there with mouth open and that blank look in his eyes that clearly said, “Where am I? Where have they taken me?” After four full minutes of Joe frozen, staring into space, Obama took him by the arm and led him off the stage. The movie stars were probably thinking to themselves, “I came here to give money to a presidential race and instead I’m contributing to a geriatric care fund.” Indeed, Jill Biden has turned the White House into nothing more than the nation’s most expensive nursing home.
The coup de gras was the late June debate debacle. If everyone in the country did not know that Joe was out to lunch before, the 27 million people who watched that comedy show knew afterwards. His incoherent ramblings and slurred incomprehensible mumblings were bad and revealed that he probably did not know where he was. The saddest thing was that as his wife, Jill Biden, helped him off the stage, she told him he did a good job.
See you next week.
Steve Flowers’ weekly column appears in more than 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. steve@steveflowers.us.
